A new poll conducted entirely after last week’s debate indicates Vice President Kamala Harris holding a three-point edge over former President Donald Trump in the crucial battleground state of Wisconsin.
Harris stands at 48% support among likely voters in Wisconsin, with Trump at 45% in an AARP poll conducted Sept 11-14 and released on Wednesday. The vice president’s three-point margin over the former president is within the poll’s overall sampling error of plus or minus four points.
Democrat-turned-Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – who last month suspended his campaign and backed Trump – stands at 2% support in the poll, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 1%. One percent said they would back a different candidate, with 2% undecided.
A Wisconsin judge on Monday denied Kennedy’s request to drop his name from the presidential ballot, ruling that state law requires candidates to remain on the ballot unless they die.
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Contributing to Harris’ overall edge is an 11-point advantage among independent voters, as well as an 11-point lead among women voters compared to a 7-point advantage for Trump among men.
The poll also indicated a large geographic divide, with Harris far ahead among urban and suburban voters, while Trump enjoyed a large lead among rural voters.
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The poll’s release also points out that “the educational attainment gap is large, with Trump leading non-college voters by 10-points, but Harris up 24-points among college+ voters.”
When the third party and independent presidential candidates are removed from the questionnaire, the poll indicated Harris at 49% and Trump at 48% in a head-to-head match up, with 3% undecided.
The AARP survey is the fourth straight poll conducted this month in Wisconsin to indicate Harris with a slight edge.
Wisconsin, along with Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, had razor-thin margins that decided the outcome of the 2020 election between Trump and President Biden. Additionally, these seven states will likely determine whether Harris or Trump wins the 2024 presidential election.
The Badger State, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, are the three Rust Belt states that make up the Democrats’ so-called “Blue Wall.”
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The party reliably won all three states for a quarter-century before Trump narrowly captured them in the 2016 election to win the White House.
Four years later, in 2020, Biden carried all three states by razor-thin margins to put them back in the Democrats’ column and defeated Trump.
Both the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees have made repeated stops in the state this summer.
Trump was most recently in the state a week and a half ago, with a rally in Mosinee. Harris returns to Wisconsin on Friday for a rally in Madison, the state capital.
The running mates are also making plenty of stops in the state, with Republican vice presidential nominee Ohio Sen. JD Vance holding a campaign event in Eau Claire on Tuesday and his Democratic counterpart, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, visiting Superior last weekend.
Besides the White House battle, Wisconsin is also home to a crucial Senate race that is one of a handful that will likely decide whether Republicans can win back the chamber’s majority.
According to the poll, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin edges Republican challenger Eric Hovde 50% – 47% with 3% undecided.
The new AARP survey in Wisconsin was conducted by the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (Republican) & Impact Research (Democrat). The firms interviewed 1,052 likely voters, which included a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters.
