Trump Already Won 

Election Day has mercifully arrived, bringing to a close Donald Trump’s electoral trilogy. After nine years of exhaustive campaigning and unprecedented dramas, the American people will finally render their verdict on him and his revolutionary movement.

So much ink has been spilled on the 2024 election that I won’t bore TAC’s readers by rehashing polls, prediction models, or betting markets. As we’ll likely see this evening, these self-anointed oracles often hold limited value. Though an entire industry is devoted to understanding the American electorate, the volatility of the past decade has rendered much of it obsolete.

At this stage, the only certainty is uncertainty. Tonight’s results could be decisive—or they may plunge the country into weeks of chaos, a la the 2000 Florida recount or the 2020 certification crisis. Nobody knows for sure.

What is certain is that this election marks another precarious moment for the United States. The dramas of the past two decades have become mainstays of American politics: impeachments, assassination attempts, indictments, media scandals, and coups are no longer Constitutional bugs but defining features of the American system. The battle between competing visions of America—as a nation or as an empire—remains the defining question of our time. Despite Washington’s hopes that Donald Trump’s potential electoral defeat or imprisonment will end this debate in their favor, it is likely that this fundamental constitutional struggle will persist long after Trump’s tenure as the de facto head of American public life.

Ominously for neoliberals, a Harris victory tonight will not erase the influence of Trump’s personality from public life. A generation of Americans has come of age in the shadow of Trump’s America First revolution. For voters under 30, Trumpian rhetoric, theatrics, and grievances are the only politics they’ve meaningfully engaged with. Many men, in particular, have embraced Trump’s combative style as a response to an elite culture they feel ignores their economic and social interests. In crucial ways, Trump effectively canceled cancel culture: left-wing rhetorical policing failed to contain him, and his perseverance through a decade of media attacks has blazed a trail for future anti-establishment crusaders.

On policy, the future of American partisan realignment is secure. The convergence of reform-minded actors under the Trump banner is multi-generational and potent. Bobby Kennedy’s broad agenda has largely been absorbed by Republican voters, while Tulsi Gabbard’s realism and restraint have become the dominant perspectives on foreign policy. Figures like Elon Musk, David Sacks, and Bill Ackman now form the foundation of a renewed business wing within the party. Senator J.D. Vance’s selection as the vice-presidential nominee positions him as the movement’s heir apparent—the face of the Republican Party’s new commitment to trade protection and domestic industry. Without Trump’s 2024 campaign, traditional conservative interests, represented by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, might have prevailed. Yet Trump’s decisions this cycle have ensured a strong cohort to whom he can pass the baton. Democrats may not yet realize it, but the America First movement is still in its infancy.

Of course, Donald Trump may win tonight. If he does, it will be the largest political upheaval since the election of 1828, when Andrew Jackson swept aside the Eastern elite and reoriented American democracy to serve the interests of middle America. Trump’s political comeback would be the greatest in our national history, delivering a decisive, shattering blow to the decaying neoliberal world order. Should Kamala Harris’s deeply reactionary campaign fail, it is unlikely the United States will ever elect another neoliberal to office. The consequences for global institutions and liberal trade agreements, which have long been underpinned by American commitments, will be obvious and far-reaching.

Regardless of the election result tonight, the consequences of Donald Trump’s decade in public life will impact us for a generation. Despite reactionary efforts to undo Trump’s movement, the die has already been cast. Votes are still outstanding, but on matters of style and substance, Donald Trump already won.

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