Some Republicans Balk at Trump’s Venezuela Approach
The administration’s new tack is ruffling feathers in South Florida.
A rift over how to proceed with Venezuela policy in Washington, with an America First faction pushing for the prioritization of deportations and concrete trade interests, is calling into question Republican orthodoxies and visibly frustrating Florida Republicans.
In the first 15 days of President Donald Trump’s administration, he launched a very distinctive Venezuela policy by revoking the extension of temporary protected status (TPS) for around 600,000 Venezuelans and sending his special missions envoy Ric Grenell to Caracas on a visit that led to the release of six American hostages. As opposed to the maximum pressure approach that characterized the first administration, catalyzed in part by a focus on immigration, the two moves signify a stark departure from tradition.
The rationale for the policy shift is clear. With the Nicolás Maduro regime firmly entrenched in power and Venezuela strengthening its ties with American adversaries, merely pushing for regime change appears unproductive to the most ardent America First proponents. A particular faction within MAGA argues that pressure vis-à-vis Venezuela, especially through sectoral sanctions, proves inefficient in catalyzing behavioral change while allowing adversaries to capitalize on the nation’s ample resources. While the Trump administration has not signaled a departure from these particular instruments, there is a sway-centric argument making the rounds.
The argument is as follows: Absent significant U.S.-backed offensive actions, for which there is little political will, the purported aim of the sanctions (democratization) is not only difficult to achieve, but it will become increasingly so, as the Venezuelan regime continues to effectively decouple from the U.S. market. As opposed to left-wing humanitarian-based arguments, those in this camp believe that sanctions can work when there is a clear incentive structure.
When there is little means of advancing concrete national interests, however, it makes sense to introduce other goals to the negotiating table—without necessarily abandoning concerns over democratization. The worry is that in reaching a point in which there is nothing to squeeze, especially now that Turkey and China trade almost three times more with Venezuela than with the U.S., the U.S. could end up with a limited ability to push for any of its national security interests.
By introducing immigration and preferential trade to the table, the goal would be to satisfy some of the most salient American security interests while retaining, if not gaining, some sway. The traditional approach, critics suggest, leads to no democracy, no trade, and no deportations. Some wins are better than no wins, right?
Whatever the fascinating conversation to be had about how to qualify and pursue national interests effectively, down in South Florida, this departure from orthodoxy stresses Republican politicians.
While conservatives nationwide might be pleased when they see Ric Grenell’s meeting with Maduro translate into released hostages and cooperation in deportation enforcement, some of the anticommunists in the Sunshine State see a Biden-like rapprochement. When Trump’s promises to crack down on immigration programs translated into ending the extension of TPS for Venezuelans, thousands of Venezuelan-born Americans who supported him felt betrayed.
While the reactions to these moves worry Republicans in DC little, since the TPS measure in particular is generally popular, it puts Florida’s Republicans in a tight spot.
Take the city of Doral in South Florida. It has the largest Venezuelan-born population in the country. In 2020, it saw a 41 percent swing toward Donald Trump—a four percent advantage over Joe Biden. Last year, Trump won there by 23 points.
When some celebrate Governor Ron DeSantis’s policies as responsible for the transformation of Florida into a red state, political strategists know that most of it has to do with the demographics of South Florida—and not just the Cubans. While TPS recipients don’t vote, thousands of Venezuelan-Americans, as well as those with ties to other Latin American countries, do. The idea of Democrats weaponizing Trump’s recent moves makes Republicans there lose sleep.
Earlier last month, Senator Rick Scott and a Cuban-American congressional trio—Representatives Mario Díaz-Balart, Carlos Giménez and Maria Elvira Salazar—took to the airwaves to emphasize their opposition to the Nicolás Maduro regime, even going as far as to caution President Trump or outright disagree with his policy.
“I was not in favor of this decision by the president, it’s much better to do it case by case,” Giménez told Univision’s Al Punto. Distinguishing the Venezuelan migrants that came under Biden and under Trump, Scott told popular Venezuelan host Carla Angola: “What President Trump is doing is creating a process to where we can protect Venezuelans that should be protected, but also we can clearly send back the people that should be sent back.”
“We will continue to do everything possible to ensure that those seeking freedom from persecution and oppression are protected,” a January 29 statement from the three House representatives read.
This week, Axios reported that that same Cuban trio suggested that unless there was a change in approach, they would withhold votes the president needed for last week’s Republican budget deal that barely made it through the House. They succeeded, with Donald Trump Jr. hosting opposition leader Maria Corina Machado in his podcast and the president cancelling the oil deal Biden had secured.
Additionally, showcasing that foreign policy is more complex than a friends versus enemies dichotomy, following Grenell’s visit, Secretary of State Marco Rubio formally seized a second plane belonging to the Venezuelan government in the Dominican Republic. In January 22, Rubio also phoned Venezuelan opposition leaders Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia, and in his recent Panama visit, he congratulated the country’s president for “his regional leadership in support of a democratic, free Venezuela.”
As of now, the Jacksonian approach, defined by economic nationalism and favored by America First proponents, has not taken over—though its influence has grown. On the other hand, the ardent anti-communists who fear normalization with the Venezuelan government still have reasons for optimism, especially with Rubio at the helm. As Republicans reconcile competing ideologies and imperatives, with electoral and geopolitical concerns alike, what will result from it all remains uncertain. The true foreign policy toward Venezuela pursued by the Trump administration, as evidenced elsewhere, will not be one that the academics at Georgetown can easily classify. The uncertainty and elasticity might frustrate some, but for the author of The Art of the Deal, that combination, and an added dash of vigor, are the key ingredients in his revolutionary diplomacy.
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