On to Greenland!
In the President’s tempered and futuristic speech, one key sentence stood out.
Foreign policy usually isn’t front and center of American politics, although it should be. Professional bias aside, everything, from mass migration to foreign aid wastage to wars and inflation can be causally attributed to foreign policy. President Donald Trump’s Wednesday address to the Congress also didn’t have many mentions of foreign policy, but a few sentences stood out.
His careful distinction about the “disastrous and incompetent withdrawal from Afghanistan” was important. “Not that they were withdrawing. It was the way they withdrew. Perhaps the most embarrassing moment in the history of our country,” Trump explained, alluding to the incompetent, unplanned, and rushed exit from Afghanistan by the Pentagon, accountability for which is still lacking.
His list of the obscene government fraud and waste cut by the DOGE showed where his current instincts lie in his party’s intra-directional war. “Eight million dollars to promote LGBTQ+ in the African nation of Lesotho, which nobody has ever heard of” was classic Trumpism, and the Democrats had no answer to that on prime-time TV.
His statement on Ukraine was even starker. “I’m also working tirelessly to end the savage conflict in Ukraine. Millions of Ukrainians and Russians have been needlessly killed or wounded in this horrific and brutal conflict, with no end in sight,” the dealmaker-in-chief said, showing that he sees himself not as a party to the conflict, but a “true neutral” arbiter for a ceasefire without any further U.S. involvement.
He concluded: “The United States has sent hundreds of billions of dollars to support Ukraine’s defense, with no security, with no way. Do you want to keep it going for another five years?” The tarring of the Democrats as the pro-war party was complete. Gutting foreign aid to create an office of shipbuilding to confront and outpace China was exactly the strategic shift Republicans wanted and got.
But amid all these sentiments, there was one sentence that stood out: “And I also have a message tonight for the incredible people of Greenland. We strongly support your right to determine your own future, and if you choose, we welcome you into the United States of America.”
He then obviously added to that and played to the gallery, saying why Greenland is important for Arctic security. “We are going to get it,” he said, before again ending with a reconciliatory sentiment: “We will keep you safe. We will make you rich. And together we will take Greenland to heights like you have never thought possible before.” This was an unusual departure from the bluster and bombast we are used to, and was a reflection of a far more mature sentiment.
For what it’s worth, it was noticed across the moat. While American media was busy clickbaiting the “we’re going to get it” part, Greenland’s Business minister Naaja Nathanielsen noted on Facebook that “the speech is targeted at an American Republican audience and should entertain and shock…. I recognize the American concern for their safety and also see good opportunities for increased cooperation in other areas.”
But all things considered, the instinct was sound. American foreign policy and diplomacy always worked best if the iron hand was padded by a velvet glove. The idea that the U.S. would just simply annex Greenland, even by force if needed, is unappealing to a lot of Americans and worse for Europeans. Peaceful integration and mutually beneficial trade with foreign lands, on the other hand, is as American as, well, apfelstrudel. The key American interest in the Arctic is of mining, basing, and perhaps settlement. The first two points are easily achievable, and both Greenland and Denmark are willing to make a deal tomorrow, if needed. The last hitch is one of settlement. The level of investment America can make in Greenland is unthinkable in the EU. But the level of investment also demands the manpower needed to actually work and live there. Your humble analyst recently wrote a policy brief towards that cause, highlighting five key ways to a long-term Greenland deal. Two among them, including rapid investment in Greenland and securing the Arctic from predatory powers, were mentioned by Trump last night.
The push to integrate Greenland into an American sphere is an endeavor that will take generations, but the journey towards that started with the olive branch of Trump’s simple four words: “if you so choose.” The perfect solution would be either to push Greenland towards independence, or a tripartite deal with Denmark moving towards that arrangement. Either way, coaxing a deal is more achievable than coercing. Trump the “peaceful dealmaker” should trust his own better instincts.
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