Haven’t you heard?! Crime is down.
In the lead up to election day in November, this refrain has become a favorite of Democrats who’d like you to forget their flirtations with — and, in many cases, explicit support for — defunding the police.
That’s on top of the dozens of police and criminal justice “reforms” they enacted in the wake of George Floyd’s murder in 2020.
The headlines speak volumes:
“A Drop in Crime Rates? Thanks, Biden!” — Bloomberg
“New data show homicides down in Biden’s last year vs. Trump’s” — Axios
“The crime wave is over, but Republicans can’t let go” — Vox
And New York City is often Exhibit A in this duplicitous messaging campaign.
Through mid-August of this year, murders and shootings in Gotham are each down 10% compared to the same period in 2023.
And in 2023, those numbers were also lower than they were in 2022.
But something’s fishy here.
They don’t say it, but the reason progressives are championing recent declines in offenses like homicides and gun assaults these days is to undermine voters’ (accurate) sense that the left’s criminal justice approach actually contributed to the upticks in violent crime in the first place.
While it may be a comfort to see violent crime declines headlining news instead of crime itself, presenting the numbers without additional analysis muddles the overall crime picture.
For starters, crime is not down in all offense categories; some are down and others are up.
There have also been declines in population, subway ridership, and in-office work rates — all of which translate to New Yorkers spending far less time on the street than they used to.
This, in turn, presents fewer opportunities for criminals, and thus lower offense numbers.
The progressives advancing these messages say that anyone expressing concern about crime should be denounced as a “fearmonger” simply because some violent crime measures are down this year. But they ignore the bigger picture.
When highlighting that some crime measures are down, progressives make an even more problematic omission: Enforcement is also up.
Imagine that!
The leftists who’ve championed depolicing and decarceration now highlight recent crime declines for one reason, and one reason only: to discredit any criticism of their public-safety records.
The crime spikes were just blips, you see — temporary by-products of the COVID pandemic. Things are already stabilizing all by themselves. No need to reconsider the leftward lurch in how cities like New York have approached public safety in the post-Ferguson era.
That’s essentially their message.
Those who take this line are hoping no one notices that the recent declines in the city’s serious crime have also been accompanied by intensified law enforcement efforts. Some stats to consider:
In 2023, NYPD arrests shot up nearly 20%. According to an Aug. 23 social media post by NYPD Chief of Patrol John Chell, arrests have now reached a five-year high in the city.
Summonses are also up. In fiscal year 2023, the city Department of Correction reported nearly 4,000 more jail admissions than the previous year — just shy of a 22% increase.
The average daily jail population was up some 18% (to 5,873) in fiscal 2023, compared to fiscal 2022.
The state prison population has also increased, rising 4% between March 31, 2022 and March 31, 2023, according to a report by the Data Collaborative For Justice.
What’s happening with New York City crime is no accident. Professional police critics would have you believe that elevated crime levels over the last few years were unrelated to their efforts to curb enforcement.
But the available data lend support to a far more plausible (and contrary) insight: enforcement matters.
Yet, many progressives still can’t bring themselves to applaud the enforcement efforts that have likely brought about the modest safety gains they’re so aggressively latching onto.
Doing so, after all, would ease the concerns of those still worried about whether their next subway ride will be peaceful.
The truth is that things could and should be a lot safer.
The only things in the way of that safety are New York’s (the city and state’s) criminal justice policies and the unwillingness of “progressive” pols to rework them.
Rafael A. Mangual is the Nick Ohnell fellow at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, a contributing editor of City Journal, and author of “Criminal (In)Justice: What The Push For Decarceration And Depolicing Gets Wrong And Who It Hurts Most.”
