Why Iranians Prefer Trump Over Democrats
They were disappointed in Biden and see Trump as a dealmaker.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he favors diplomacy with Iran and wants to avoid conflict. Iran, for its part, has sent mixed signals about whether it thinks negotiating with the U.S. leader is a good idea.
Before Trump’s inauguration, Mohammad Javad Zarif—Iran’s vice president for strategic affairs until recently—had signaled readiness to negotiate with the incoming president in op-eds for Foreign Affairs and The Economist and during a conversation at the World Economic Forum. President Masoud Pezeshkian had done the same during an interview with NBC.
But in recent weeks, Iran’s leadership has reacted negatively to Trump’s reimposing a “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran and to his warnings that a war could be imminent if a diplomatic agreement isn’t reached. Since then, Zarif has resigned from his position (or perhaps was forced out by hardliners); Pezeshkian has adopted more hardline rhetoric vis-a-vis the U.S.; and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has expressed skepticism regarding diplomacy with Washington and is now rejecting talks.
On Sunday, the Iranian mission to the United Nations had signaled openness to talks on military concerns related to Iran’s nuclear program. That came only one day after a social media post by Khamenei that lambasted “bullying governments”—a clear reference to Trump’s recent warnings. Some observers became optimistic about the prospects for diplomacy, but on Tuesday, Iran again signaled that it wasn’t ready for talks when Pezeshkian said he wouldn’t negotiate with Trump so long as the U.S. was making threats.
Trump too has sent mixed signals. When he restored maximum pressure, the same policy he pursued in his first term, Trump did so through a presidential memorandum, which is less formal than an executive order and not legally binding. As he signed the memo, Trump said he was hesitant about the move because he’d rather strike a deal that benefitted both countries.
Observers of Iran remain unsure if Tehran’s official position on negotiations is evolving, if Tehran is deliberately sending mixed messages as a negotiating tactic, or if the political establishment is too divided to formulate a consistent position.
Most likely, this position is under continuous review as Iranians try to figure out what to make of Trump, who withdrew in 2018 from the Obama-era nuclear deal but now insists he wants to make an agreement. During a trip to Iran in the final weeks of America’s presidential campaign last year, I spoke to many Iranians about what a Trump victory would mean for their country. What I heard surprised me and may shed light on how Iranians view the U.S. leader today. Unless Iranians’ views have changed dramatically in response to Trump’s actions as president, many believe that constructive engagement is possible, and some hope he’ll push Tehran to moderate its stance.
The vast majority of officials, academics, and ordinary citizens I talked to during that time expressed hope that Donald Trump would return to the White House. After taking in public discourse and media debates and reflecting on my private conversations, I discerned four general arguments in favor of Trump.
First, many Iranians felt pronounced disappointment regarding Joe Biden’s presidency. They believe his administration invested too little into revitalizing the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (aka the Iran nuclear deal), an Obama-era agreement that Trump withdrew from in 2018 despite Tehran’s verified compliance. After exiting the agreement, Trump slapped harsh sanctions on Iran, which Biden largely maintained. Biden’s continuation of Trump’s sanctions and refusal to make meaningful concessions to revive diplomacy led Iranians to believe that Democrats are unlikely to pursue rapprochement with Iran.
Secondly, the unconditional support that the Biden administration threw behind Israel in its wars on Gaza and Lebanon led many in the Middle East, including in Iran, to conclude that Democrats are no better for the region than Republicans, and possibly worse. If Biden’s failure to revive the nuclear deal made Iranians question the commitment of Democrats on that issue, his support for Israel’s wars has tarnished the Democratic party among Iranians more generally and aroused their deep antipathy.
Many Iranians made the above arguments when explaining their preference for Trump over Democratic Party alternatives, yet these arguments amount to a rejection of Biden and the Democrats rather than an endorsement of the GOP leader. However, the other two arguments I heard from Iranians involved positive reasons to favor Trump.
The third argument is this: A tough U.S. president—meaning Trump, as opposed to Biden or Kamala Harris—might be needed to pressure Iran to change some of its internal and external policies and extract concessions. This argument assumes that the U.S. can coerce the Iranian leadership into moderating its positions. Iranians who made this argument were critics of the status quo who hoped that diplomacy with Washington would lead to an easing of sanctions, less economic hardship, and improved security, plus an overall improvement in Iran’s foreign relations. A few Iranians who strongly oppose their government even went so far as to argue that Trump, if elected, should pursue a robust regime change policy, though this is a minority view within Iran and Trump has not embraced this policy option.
Lastly, many Iranians told me that Donald Trump, despite his bluster, is more likely than his liberal alternatives to come to a fair agreement with the Islamic Republic. They observed that Trump is not an ideologue bound by party discipline or traditional Republican Party beliefs, but a highly transactional politician looking to make deals. Given Iran’s poor human rights record, some Iranians believe that Western liberals want Tehran to make moves toward Western-style democracy that are unlikely in the near term. By contrast, these Iranians assess that Trump doesn’t really care about Iran’s internal politics.
Of course, not all Iranians favor Trump over other U.S. politicians, and most have criticisms of his leadership. But a surprisingly large majority of the Iranians I talked to did prefer him, either out of disgust with the Democratic Party or because of Trump’s perceived strength and pragmatism. Whether these Iranians are right that Trump can push U.S.-Iran relations in a more positive direction remains to be seen.
A breakthrough in the standoff between Washington and Tehran requires nothing short of a diplomatic masterpiece. When thinking about the alternatives and the real risk of military confrontation, all interlocutors I spoke to hoped that diplomacy will be given a chance—against all the odds.
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